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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd