Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
